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What is the TrendCatcher strategy based on?
The sole purpose of the strategy is to identify and capture a portion of strong trend days.
One of the better ways to identify a potential trend day is through TICKscore, an indicator
based on a unique scoring system for intraday TICK readings. We utilize TICKscore in conjunction with
an analysis of intraday market internals to trigger long and short signals. Once in a trade, we hold it right into the close (unless stopped) to capture as much of the intraday trend as possible.
How often is there a trade?
It depends on market conditions. In volatile periods, we'll see 3-4 trades a week. In quiet times, we could go a week or more without a signal. Overall, it averages out to a little more than two trades a week. An important point to keep in mind is that the strategy will only be successful if you have the mental fortitude to trade every signal. With a win/loss ratio only slightly better than 50/50, there will be plenty of losing signals. Fortunately, the average winner has been 1 1/2 times the average loser, which accounts for the strategy's
consistent profits (see performance chart vs. buy&hold).
Can I see a track record?
Yes, a track record since early 2005 is available via this link.
What's been the worst drawdown?
Approximately 32 S&P points.
What's the win/loss ratio?
Approximately 54% of signals are winners.
What is your average hold time? Do you ever hold overnight?
All signals are for the day only. Ideally, we hold a trade from the time it's activated until the close (that's the cash market close at 4pm ET). This usually means we caught a good trending day in the market.
Do you employ stops?
Yes, stops are utilized, but they're breadth-based rather than price-based. In other words, we need to
see a significant deterioration in breadth before we'll be shaken out of a long position (or vice versa for shorts.)
Remember, our intention is to stick with a signal right into the close whenever possible.
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