By Rainsford Yang
Thursday, June 7th 2007
06/07 4:05pm ET: S&P closes at 1491, producing a big 19 point profit on today's intraday sell signal. Down volume 93% of total big board volume, trigging both a short and long-term bullish setup at today's close in addition to those mentioned earlier. Nasdaq/NYSE volume ratio closes at a low 1.23. Breadth over 10:1 negative (!). TICKscore closes at -110. Cumulative Adjusted TICK -1477. More in tonight's commentary.
06/07 1:00pm ET: Massively lopsided session as the bond market continues to fall apart. 10yr yield at 5.1%. Breadth 7:1 in favor of decliners. 88% downside volume. VXO up over 12%. Should the VXO close up over 10% today, it would trigger a 3-5 day buy setup given the likelihood that we'll see a reduction in volatility in the days to come coinciding with a rebound in stocks. Also noteworthy is that the NYSE McClellan Oscillator is set to close below the -200 level today, which will trigger yet another 3-day buy (that will make three short-term buy setups on the board as of Thursday's close.) Today's selloff has produced a nice profit so far on this morning's trend catcher sell, which is scheduled to be closed out at 4pm today, but from an end-of-day perspective, it looks increasingly likely that a change in trend is fast approaching.
06/07 12:00pm ET: At mid-day, market remains under heavy selling pressure. TICK action has been very weak throughout the session, as seen by the straight-down slope of the cumulative Adjusted TICK (currently at -532.) TICKscore -32. Breadth running in 5:1 negative territory. Down volume 82% of total big board volume. Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio relatively low at 1.33. From an intermediate-term perspective, I would note that today's session is likely to trigger a reliable two-week buy setup at today's close. The reasoning? Three straight 2:1 negative breadth sessions, suggesting selling pressure is nearing an intermediate-term exhaustion point. Since 1990, this setup has led to a higher S&P two weeks later a high percentage of the time.
06/07 10:40am ET: With the SPX at 1510.25, an intraday trend catcher sell signal has been triggered.
06/07 10:20am ET: TICKscore down to -3. Breadth 3:1. Sellers clearly maintaining the upper hand so far, although the Nasdaq is still holding near unch'd levels.
06/07 10:09am ET: TICK makes its first extreme move of the day to the downside at it approaches the -1000 level. Breadth once again approaching 3:1 negative.
06/07 10:00am ET: Yield on the 10-year surged through the 5% level this morning, which is being cited as the primary driver of today's selloff in stocks. Note that the 10-year has yet to really challenge its 52-week high around 5.25%, and until this occurs it's hard to argue the current action is really bearish for stocks.
06/07 9:45am ET: Stock indexes holding near unchanged levels despite lopsided negative breadth right out of the gate (already 2:1, touched 3:1 earlier). Small caps underperforming, RUT -0.4%, SPX -0.2%, NDX +0.1%.
By Rainsford Yang
Wednesday, June 6th 2007
06/06 3:15pm ET: Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio currently at 1.42. NYSE volume running just under 1.2 billion - fairly light considering the sharp selloff. Unlikely, but if today's final volume comes in below yesterday's 1.51 billion, a 1-3 day buy setup would be triggered. As it stands, the previously discussed 3-5 day buy setup will be triggered at today's close, suggesting further weakness will most likely represent a buying opportunity. Down volume 86% of total volume. Breadth nearly 5:1 negative. TICKscore -45. Cumulative Adjusted TICK -900. This morning's trend catcher sell signal will be closed out at 4pm.
06/06 1:00pm ET: Market internals remain heavily lopsided. Breadth running nearly 5:1 negative. TICKscore -29. Cumulative Adjusted TICK -568. Down volume on the big board running at 88% of total volume. A final reading of 90% or more would suggest limited downside potential Thursday and tilt the odds in favor of a higher close.
06/06 11:25am ET: Assuming breadth stays in 2:1 negative territory today, a short-term 3-5 day buy setup will be triggered at today's close. Historically, back-to-back sessions of lopsided negative breadth indicates selling pressure is approaching a short-term exhaustion point.
06/06 10:35am ET: With the SPX at 1520, an intraday
trend catcher sell signal has been issued.
06/06 10:15am ET: With breadth approaching 4:1 negative territory, we have to be a little cautious regarding any intraday sell signals. There's potential for a sharp counter-trend move when breadth is this lopsided.
06/06 9:52am ET: Early TICK action weak. TICKscore already down to -3, cumulative Adjusted TICK trending straight down.
06/06 9:45am ET: SPX and RUT have both traded below Tuesday's lows. NDX holding above those lows for now, but likely to follow suit. Breadth already in 3:1 negative territory.
Trend Catcher Track Record for 2007
Date Time (ET) Signal Entry Exit Profit/Loss Cumulative P/L Monthly P/L
1/3/2007 10:16 BUY 1426.95 1422.65 (4.30) 237.85
1/5/2007 11:05 SELL 1411.76 1409.88 1.88 239.73
1/11/2007 10:12 BUY 1423.1 1423.96 0.86 240.59
1/12/2007 12:55 BUY 1430.94 1430.27 (0.67) 239.92
1/19/2007 10:57 BUY 1431.2 1427.61 (3.59) 236.33
1/19/2007 13:56 BUY 1428.66 1430.49 1.83 238.16
1/23/2007 11:09 BUY 1426.34 1427.85 1.51 239.67
1/24/2007 13:40 BUY 1435.36 1439.85 4.49 244.16
1/25/2007 12:59 SELL 1431.19 1424.46 6.73 250.89
1/30/2007 11:21 BUY 1428.12 1424.38 (3.74) 247.15
1/30/2007 14:41 BUY 1426.38 1428.47 2.09 249.24
1/31/2007 14:36 BUY 1438.4 1438.48 0.08 249.32 +7.17
2/1/2007 10:42 BUY 1443.94 1445.71 1.77 251.09
2/9/2007 13:35 SELL 1440.78 1438.16 2.62 253.71
2/12/2007 14:34 SELL 1431.44 1433.58 (2.14) 251.57
2/13/2007 12:23 BUY 1442.2 1444.09 1.89 253.46
2/14/2007 10:06 BUY 1452.48 1455.02 2.54 256.00
2/27/2007 12:14 SELL 1425.86 1401.07 24.79 280.79
2/28/2007 10:48 BUY 1414.7 1407.41 (7.29) 273.50
2/28/2007 12:46 BUY 1411.26 1406.43 (4.83) 268.67 +19.35
3/2/2007 13:11 SELL 1392.26 1387.35 4.91 273.58
3/5/2007 12:18 SELL 1382.19 1374.26 7.93 281.51
3/6/2007 12:35 BUY 1388.68 1395.11 6.43 287.94
3/8/2007 11:44 BUY 1407.41 1401.19 (6.22) 281.72
3/9/2007 12:29 BUY 1406.54 1403.26 (3.28) 278.44
3/12/2007 14:42 BUY 1409.28 1404.83 (4.45) 273.99
3/13/2007 12:14 SELL 1397.57 1378.1 19.47 293.46
3/14/2007 12:05 SELL 1372.48 1377.79 (5.31) 288.15
3/15/2007 12:31 BUY 1394.36 1392.03 (2.33) 285.82
3/19/2007 10:53 BUY 1398.39 1401.58 3.19 289.01
3/20/2007 11:58 BUY 1407.2 1410.49 3.29 292.30
3/21/2007 14:21 BUY 1419.41 1434.49 15.08 307.38 +38.71
4/3/2007 10:37 BUY 1434.9 1437.32 2.42 309.80
4/11/2007 10:51 SELL 1441.23 1442.49 (1.26) 308.54
4/11/2007 14:08 SELL 1439.65 1439.04 0.61 309.15
4/16/2007 11:33 BUY 1466.02 1468.47 2.45 311.60
4/25/2007 13:17 BUY 1489.30 1495.42 6.12 317.72
4/30/2007 14:49 SELL 1489.46 1482.37 7.09 324.81 +17.43
5/01/2007 10:28 SELL 1476.80 1480.50 (3.70) 321.11
5/02/2007 10:06 BUY 1493.90 1495.92 2.02 323.13
5/09/2007 14:48 BUY 1513.40 1510.60 (2.80) 320.33
5/10/2007 11:15 SELL 1503.75 1491.47 12.28 332.61
5/11/2007 10:51 BUY 1502.20 1505.85 3.65 336.26
5/14/2007 14:05 SELL 1499.34 1503.18 (3.84) 332.42
5/15/2007 10:11 BUY 1512.75 1507.85 (4.90) 327.52
5/15/2007 11:40 BUY 1512.73 1511.14 (1.59) 325.93
5/17/2007 13:03 SELL 1510.60 1513.05 (2.45) 323.48
5/18/2007 14:19 BUY 1522.25 1520.25 (2.00) 321.48
5/21/2007 12:11 BUY 1529.00 1527.25 (1.75) 319.74
5/23/2007 10:34 BUY 1531.00 1529.50 (1.50) 318.24
5/24/2007 11:17 SELL 1517.50 1507.51 9.99 328.23
5/25/2007 10:14 BUY 1514.00 1515.73 1.73 329.96
5/29/2007 9:58 BUY 1520.00 1514.70 (5.30) 324.66
5/30/2007 15:01 BUY 1527.50 1530.23 +2.73 327.39 +2.57
6/05/2007 10:20 SELL 1531.00 1530.95 +0.05 327.44
6/06/2007 10:35 SELL 1520.00 1517.38 +2.62 330.06
6/07/2007 10:40 SELL 1510.21 1490.72 +19.49 349.55 +22.16
DISCLAIMER
COMMENTS, DATA AND TRADING SIGNALS HEREIN ARE FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND ARE NOT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY OR SELL. ALL INFORMATION
PRESENTED IS BELIEVED TO BE ACCURATE BUT IS NOT GUARANTEED.
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
COPYRIGHT 2007 ASTRIKOS LLC. THIS PUBLICATION IS FOR THE BENEFIT OF SUBSCRIBERS ONLY AND IS NOT TO BE SUMMARIZED, REPRODUCED, OR REBROADCAST IN ANY FASHION WITHOUT OUR WRITTEN PERMISSION.
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